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Conference Paper

The Threshold 21 Sustainable Development Model

As we approach the turn of the millennium and pass the 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods and United Nations institutions, none of our major development agencies have a comprehensive sustainable development model. The Millennium Institute, after a decade of assisting countries in long-term sustainable development studies, has developed a multidisciplinary national sustainable development model called Threshold 21. The model integrates economic production, national accounts, demography, agriculture, energy, health, education, nutrition, and environment in a single model based on the principles and methodology of systems dynamics. It simulates the dynamic interactions of these variables for a period of 50 years. Threshold 21 is written in the Vensim simulation environment. The model is being applied first in an analysis of alternative futures for Bangladesh. The Millennium Institute, in collaboration with development partners, is planning applications in several countries, including Australia, China, and the United States.

The Threshold 21: Sustainable Development Model

Published by

University of Bergen

Focus Area

Sustainable Development, Policy Analysis

Region

Bangladesh

Year

1995

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