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Modelling Degrowth Policies with System Dynamics: Towards Policy Coherence
Using the iSDG-Sweden model, this study evaluates degrowth policies in Sweden from 2026–2050. Results show that policies only work effectively when implemented together, combining reduced high-impact production, shorter working hours, and wealth redistribution. This package lowers environmental pressures while reducing poverty, inequality, and unemployment. While financially viable in the short term, long-term debt risks suggest deeper structural reforms may still be needed.
2026
Sweden
Economic Growth, Sustainable Development
Report
Assessment of Development Scenarios to Reach Net-Zero by Mid-Century: A System Dynamics Modelling Approach for South Africa
South Africa's net-zero transition is best pursued as an integrated developmental shift rather than a narrow decarbonisation exercise. Using the iSD system dynamics model, the report shows a holistic, multi-sector scenario outperforms the baseline—boosting GDP, cutting emissions and poverty, and improving access to electricity, water and nutrition, with electricity the key enabling system. However, persistently high inequality and incomplete decoupling of growth from consumption mean it is not yet a fully just transition, requiring stronger distributive and circular-economy measures.
2026
South Africa
Sustainable Development
Report
SDG for All: Africa
A research from Earth4All, utilizing the Millennium Institute iSD Model, shows the policy levers needed to ensure that the SDGs are met in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2100. The report ‘SDGs for All: Africa’ equips policymakers with practical solutions designed to accelerate SDG implementation and to respond to the planetary emergency. It concludes that policymakers can step up the implementation of the SDGs by 2030 and beyond and achieve wellbeing for all. But this is only possible by enacting five ‘extraordinary turnarounds’ that break with current trends.
2025
Africa
Sustainable Development
Journal Publication
Next Generation National SDGs Assessments: From Progress Reporting to Exploring Policy Pathways and Causal Dynamics
To address the lack of analytical depth in current SDG reporting, this study proposes a comprehensive "third generation" assessment framework using Australia as a case study. By analyzing policy pathways, spillovers, and causal dynamics, the findings identify three key priorities: reversing social backsliding (poverty/health), leveraging the renewable energy transition, and managing future policy trade-offs. This methodology offers a transferable model for other nations to move beyond descriptive reporting toward integrated, forward-looking strategies, providing a robust foundation for the post-2030 sustainable development agenda.
2025
Australia
Sustainable Development
Report
Foresight for the Transformation of Agrifood Systems through Agroecology: Guidance Document for Decision Makers and Practitioners
This guidance document, developed by FAO, CIRAD, and GIZ, analyzes 16 foresight processes to explore how agroecology can support the transformation of food systems. It examines methodologies, scenarios, and stakeholder participation, emphasizing the political nature of transformation and the need for inclusive, systemic, and participatory approaches. The findings highlight the diversity of foresight methods, including modeling tools such as the iSDG, and provide recommendations to strengthen the integration of agroecology into foresight, offering decision-makers and practitioners pathways toward more sustainable food systems.
2025
Global
Agriculture
Report
Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7)
The Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7) assesses global environmental trends and explores pathways for transformative change across development contexts. Millennium Institute contributed to Chapters 19 and 20, focusing on environmental challenges across income groups and a regional case study on green hydrogen. The report underscores the importance of context-sensitive and system-aware approaches to environmental policy.
2025
Global
Agriculture, Climate Change, Sustainable Development, Environmental Policy