Thesis
Migration and Development in Senegal: A System Dynamics Analysis of the Feedback Relationships
This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The study produces two important results: an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way, and insights into their feedback relations. Migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but the dominant behaviour is a counteracting one: an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, which in turn causes a decline in emigration. Migration also causes a decline in education in the short term but an increase after approximately 25 years, a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these observations, important policy implications can be derived for sending and receiving countries.
Published by
University of Bergen
Focus Area
Sustainable Development, Policy Analysis
Region
Senegal
Year
2011





