Simulation for the Sustainable Development Goals: Modeling SDG Pathways
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Simulation and modeling for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is used to explore how SDG targets and overall goal performance behave under different scenarios, policy choices, and assumptions. By integrating real-world data into simulation models, it helps policymakers examine how indicators interact across sectors, making trade-offs, feedbacks, and causal relationships clearer than static analysis alone.
At the Millennium Institute, this work is supported by the Integrated Sustainable Development (iSD) simulation model. The simulator was developed to represent interactions across social, economic, and environmental domains, and is used to explore development pathways while accounting for cross-sector dynamics over time.
Interested in exploring how simulation can support your SDG strategy?
Schedule a demo with one of our policy analysts to see how the Integrated Sustainable Development (iSD) Simulator can help analyse policy options and development pathways.
Modeling the SDGs: a Practical Approach to Global Goals
Achieving the SDGs requires moving beyond siloed planning. Progress on individual goals depends on interactions across policies, sectors, and time. By simulating SDG pathways, users can explore how policies perform over time, identify leverage points, and design strategies aligned with national development plans and the 2030 Agenda. For a detailed guide to the simulator, download the iSD simulation model documentation.
Climate Action and Energy Transition (SDG 13)
The simulator represents climate change through variables such as temperature change, precipitation patterns, drought conditions, and the frequency of natural disasters. These climate dynamics influence development outcomes by affecting infrastructure, economic activity, and public investment needs, including the potential economic damage associated with extreme events.
In the “Accelerating the Sustainable Development Goals in Angola” project, a policy scenario including 5 percent additional investment (as a share of GDP) incorporated targeted investment in climate adaptation capital. In the model, adaptation investment is designed to reduce the economic damage caused by climate impacts—such as infrastructure losses from natural disasters or productivity effects associated with changing climate conditions.
Simulation results indicate that under this higher-investment scenario, progress toward SDG 13 (Climate Action) improves compared with the baseline and the 2 percent investment scenario. The additional policy package includes a 0.13% of GDP allocated to climate adaptation, contributing to an estimated improvement of around 5% in SDG 13 target attainment by 2030.
Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6)
In the simulator, water systems are represented through interactions between water supply, agricultural water withdrawal, industrial and domestic water demand, and irrigation efficiency. These dynamics determine the probability of water access for households and agriculture, while also linking water availability to population growth, economic activity, and land use.
In the Angola project, investments in water management and basic sanitation were included in the policy scenarios with additional investment. These interventions expand water infrastructure and improve sanitation services, strengthening access to safe water while reducing pressures on water resources.
Simulation results show that SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) is one of the goals that responds most strongly to increased investment. Under the baseline scenario, the model estimates that around 45% of SDG 6 targets could be achieved by 2030. With additional investment equivalent to 2 percent and 5 percent of GDP, the projected achievement rises to approximately 61% and 80%, respectively.
Sustainable Cities and Communities (SDG 11)
Urban development in the simulator is represented through interactions between population growth, housing demand, infrastructure provision, transport systems, energy use, and environmental conditions such as air pollution. These dynamics shape how cities expand over time and how access to housing, services, and infrastructure evolves alongside economic and demographic change.
In Australia, the Millennium Institute worked in partnership with Monash University on the "Transforming Australia – SDG Progress Report 2024". Using the iSD model, the analysis explored alternative national development pathways and their implications for poverty reduction, health, and overall SDG progress. The results showed that integrated investment strategies can dramatically alter long-term outcomes, reinforcing the role of systemic planning in shaping sustainable and inclusive communities.
SDG Analysis: Using Data to Drive Action
Simulation for the Sustainable Development Goals transforms large volumes of data into actionable insight. By integrating national statistics, sectoral indicators, and internationally recognised metrics, the iSD model enables policymakers to explore how policies interact across sectors and over time.
Rather than analysing indicators in isolation, SDG simulation provides a systems-level view of development pathways. This approach allows decision-makers to identify policy synergies, anticipate unintended consequences, and evaluate how different investment strategies influence progress toward national and global targets.
From Model Output to Policy Insight
In both Australia and Angola, simulation results were used to support policy dialogue and strategic planning. By exploring alternative scenarios—such as maintaining current investment levels or introducing coordinated investment strategies—stakeholders were able to assess how policy choices influence SDG outcomes over time.
In Angola, for example, simulations compared baseline investment levels with additional investment scenarios equivalent to 2% and 5% of GDP. The results showed that coordinated investments across sectors could accelerate progress toward multiple SDGs, particularly in areas such as poverty reduction, water and sanitation, energy access, and climate action.
Measuring Progress and Impact Across the SDGs
A key advantage of SDG simulation is the ability to measure development progress consistently across multiple goals. The iSD model evaluates SDG performance by comparing scenario outcomes against defined targets, enabling progress monitoring and how different policy pathways influence the pace and distribution of development outcomes.
This integrated approach helps governments and development partners prioritise investments, align financing strategies, and design policies that reflect the interconnected nature of sustainable development.
Simulation for the Sustainable Development Goals in Practice
The Millennium Institute applies simulation as a practical tool for national planning, policy analysis, and SDG implementation.
Across projects such as the Transforming Australia – SDG Progress Report developed with Monash University and the Accelerating the Sustainable Development Goals in Angola initiative, simulation has helped policymakers explore development pathways, evaluate investment strategies, and identify policy interventions that can accelerate progress toward the 2030 Agenda.
By modeling SDG pathways, simulation for sustainable development supports informed decision-making under uncertainty. It helps governments and institutions understand policy trade-offs, test alternative strategies, and design integrated approaches to sustainable and inclusive development.
Explore the iSD Simulator
Schedule a demo with one of our policy analysts to explore how the Integrated Sustainable Development (iSD) Simulator can support policy analysis and development planning.
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