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Report

Assessment of Development Scenarios to Reach Net-Zero by Mid-Century: A System Dynamics Modelling Approach for South Africa

This report uses the Millennium Institute's iSD system dynamics model, customised for South Africa, to assess development scenarios supporting the country's transition to net-zero CO₂ emissions by mid-century, informing its Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy and Sectoral Emission Targets. Comparing a baseline against a holistic scenario combining interventions across energy, transport, food, water, land use, production and human development, the analysis finds that integrated action delivers cross-sector gains: stronger long-term GDP growth, modestly lower poverty and unemployment, a gradually improving Human Development Index, reduced emissions and air pollution, and better access to electricity, water, sanitation and nutrition. Electricity emerges as the single most important enabling system, with food systems also highly influential, underscoring that isolated sectoral interventions are insufficient and that policy coherence and integrated investment are essential. However, the holistic scenario does not yet constitute a fully just transition—inequality remains persistently high and decoupling of growth from material consumption is incomplete—pointing to the need for stronger distributive measures, circular economy transitions, and structural transformation. Overall, the report concludes that South Africa's net-zero pathway is most plausible and beneficial when framed as an integrated developmental transition rather than a narrow technical decarbonisation exercise.

Project Report

Focus Area

Sustainable Development

Region

South Africa

Year

2026

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