Research Repository
This collection brings together work based on the Millennium Institute's models: the iSD model and its predecessor, Threshold 21 (T21). It includes reports and papers by the Millennium Institute and its partners, as well as research by universities, institutions and independent researchers who have applied these models in their own work.
The collection spans three decades of work, from the first T21 applications in the 1990s to current analyses of the Sustainable Development Goals, climate policy and green transitions in more than 40 countries. Use the filters to browse by type, country or region, focus area and year.
Journal Article
Next Generation National SDGs Assessments: From Progress Reporting to Exploring Policy Pathways and Causal Dynamics
To address the lack of analytical depth in current SDG reporting, this study proposes a comprehensive "third generation" assessment framework using Australia as a case study. By analyzing policy pathways, spillovers, and causal dynamics, the findings identify three key priorities: reversing social backsliding (poverty/health), leveraging the renewable energy transition, and managing future policy trade-offs. This methodology offers a transferable model for other nations to move beyond descriptive reporting toward integrated, forward-looking strategies, providing a robust foundation for the post-2030 sustainable development agenda.
2025
Australia
Sustainable Development, Policy Analysis, Energy, Poverty & Inequality
Report
Foresight for the Transformation of Agrifood Systems through Agroecology: Guidance Document for Decision Makers and Practitioners
This guidance document, developed by FAO, CIRAD, and GIZ, analyzes 16 foresight processes to explore how agroecology can support the transformation of food systems. It examines methodologies, scenarios, and stakeholder participation, emphasizing the political nature of transformation and the need for inclusive, systemic, and participatory approaches. The findings highlight the diversity of foresight methods, including modeling tools such as the iSDG, and provide recommendations to strengthen the integration of agroecology into foresight, offering decision-makers and practitioners pathways toward more sustainable food systems.
2025
Global
Agriculture, Environmental Policy, Food Security
Report
Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7)
The Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7) assesses global environmental trends and explores pathways for transformative change across development contexts. Millennium Institute contributed to Chapters 19 and 20, focusing on environmental challenges across income groups and a regional case study on green hydrogen. The report underscores the importance of context-sensitive and system-aware approaches to environmental policy.
2025
Global
Agriculture, Climate Change, Sustainable Development, Environmental Policy
Report
Building Resilience: Addressing Climate Change Threat Multipliers in Zambia Using the iSD Model
Using the iSD model, this study shows that implementing Zambia's NDC and Green Growth Strategy would raise human development and SDG attainment by 2050 while building resilience to climate threats.
2025
Zambia
Climate Change, Sustainable Development, Economy
Journal Article
Participatory modelling and scenario exploration to address the air pollution challenge in Thailand and Laos
A participatory System Dynamics study in Thailand and Lao PDR examined drivers and policy options for managing transboundary air pollution. Using an Integrated Air Pollution (IAP) model for Chiang Rai and Vientiane, stakeholders identified key emission sources and tested interventions. Projections showed major PM2.5 reductions from targeting waste burning, household cooking, and transport. The study demonstrated the value of participatory modeling for informing evidence-based air quality policies.
2025
Thailand and Laos
Policy Analysis, Environmental Policy, Climate Change
Working Paper
Making stakeholder knowledge on SDG interaction explicit: a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) approach
Comparing stakeholder causal loop diagrams with the iSDG-AT model for Austria, this working paper finds household income links poverty, growth and climate goals, with clear trade-offs for climate action.
2025
Austria
Sustainable Development, Policy Analysis, Climate Change, Poverty & Inequality