Zambia
Zambia National Human Development Report
For Zambia’s 2025 National Human Development Report (NHDR), the Millennium Institute partnered with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Zambian stakeholders to analyze how climate change threatens national development and how policy action can build resilience. The report highlights climate change as a major challenge to progress, deepening poverty, food insecurity, and displacement.
To support this effort, the Millennium Institute applied its Integrated Sustainable Development (iSD) model, a system dynamics-based tool designed to capture the complex interactions between social, economic, and environmental systems. The model was adapted to Zambia’s context and used to quantify the potential impacts of two scenarios: a Baseline, reflecting business-as-usual, and a Climate Resilience Scenario (CRS), incorporating Zambia’s green policy frameworks — notably the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and National Green Growth Strategy (GGS).
Through extensive collaboration with national stakeholders — including government ministries, development partners, and civil society — the project engaged participants in workshops to define key climate threat pathways, validate model assumptions, and refine the scenarios. This participatory approach ensured that the analysis reflects local priorities and knowledge, while incorporating advanced modeling techniques to inform evidence-based policymaking.
The findings show that by fully implementing its green policies, Zambia could increase its Human Development Index by 3%, generate 875,000 jobs, extend clean energy access to 75% of the population, and reduce emissions by nearly 10 million tonnes by 2050. The report underscores the importance of strong institutions, innovative financing mechanisms, and integrating local expertise with modern technology to achieve inclusive and climate-resilient development.
Key Policies and Reccomendations
Zambia faces growing challenges from climate change, which amplifies vulnerabilities across its economy, society, and environment. To help chart a sustainable path forward, the Millennium Institute applied its Integrated Sustainable Development (iSD) model to assess how climate change affects Zambia’s development goals — and how targeted interventions can build resilience.
The analysis compared two scenarios:
A Baseline scenario, reflecting business-as-usual trends with no additional climate action.
A Climate Resilience Scenario (CRS), which incorporates climate adaptation and mitigation measures aligned with Zambia’s Nationally Determined Contributions and Green Growth Strategy.
By quantifying the impact of these two pathways, the study provides evidence-based insights on how Zambia can meet its development priorities while addressing climate threats.
Key Insights
Implementing the CRS improves Zambia’s Human Development Index (HDI) by 3% by 2050, with gains in life expectancy, education, and income.
The CRS accelerates progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with notable improvements in poverty reduction, hunger alleviation, clean energy, climate action, and land conservation.
Economic growth is stronger under the CRS, with higher GDP, improved employment opportunities — particularly in services — and reduced poverty and inequality.
In agriculture, the CRS boosts productivity and resilience, increasing crop production and supporting food security.
The energy sector benefits from diversified, renewable sources, ensuring energy security and creating opportunities for electricity exports.
Environmental outcomes improve under the CRS, with lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduced deforestation compared to the baseline.
Recommendations
Invest in education and healthcare to drive immediate human development gains.
Scale up climate adaptation and mitigation measures, especially in agriculture and water management, to strengthen resilience.
Expand renewable energy generation and diversify energy sources to secure Zambia’s energy future.
Promote sustainable agriculture and land use practices, including training and reforestation, to enhance productivity and preserve ecosystems.
Strengthen policies that address trade-offs in water access, inequality, and natural resource use through integrated planning.
This study demonstrates that adopting a climate-resilient development pathway can deliver measurable benefits for Zambia’s people, economy, and environment — positioning the country toward a sustainable and equitable future.