Pakistan
Assessing the Impacts of Pakistan's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy
Pakistan's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) sets out a path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while sustaining economic growth, with measures across transport, electricity generation, industry, buildings and agriculture. Understanding how these measures interact across the economy, society and the environment is essential to designing policies that deliver lasting results.
Intervention
As part of UNDP's portfolio of LT-LEDS projects, the Millennium Institute applied its iSD model to assess the impacts of Pakistan's LT-LEDS on economic growth, employment, social outcomes and the environment, compared with a business-as-usual scenario to 2050. The assessment also examined green jobs and the requirements of a just transition, as well as the costs and benefits of implementing the strategy, and identified areas where its impact could be strengthened.
Key Policies and Reccomendations
Significant emission reductions. The model shows that the LT-LEDS results in a cumulative reduction of 1.6 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions and a 19% annual reduction by 2050 compared with business as usual, driven largely by the decarbonization of transport, with electric vehicles surpassing fossil fuel vehicles by 2043.
Plan renewable capacity for electrification. Rapid electrification of transport increases electricity demand, which slows the shift to renewable sources. Planned renewable generation capacity should account for expected electric vehicle adoption so that new demand is met by renewables.
Long-term growth and a shifting economy. The strategy supports economic expansion. After initial employment reductions, the model shows long-term growth in industry and services and a gradual shift toward a service-oriented economy, which makes aligning workforce skills with emerging markets a priority.
Strengthen standards and nature-based solutions. Stronger emissions and efficiency standards in transport, industry and buildings, together with nature-based interventions to curb agricultural emissions, would improve the returns of the strategy and limit the impact of economic growth on emissions.