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Building Capacity for Comprehensive National Development Planning

Jamaica is an upper middle-income economy that is nevertheless struggling due to low growth, high public debt, and exposure to external shocks. Jamaica has had many decades of national planning experience. It implemented major reforms in the 1990s, during which emphasis was placed on economic growth and industrialization. The impact of these reforms, as well as globalization, resulted in far-reaching changes in the structure of the Jamaican economy.


The changes in the structure of the Jamaican economy in the 1990s and the emerging focus on sustainable development, meant that Jamaica’s existing planning and economic models were increasingly limited in scope, as they could not adequately reflect the new structural and policymaking reality. Millennium Institute, in partnership with the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) to customize an integrated national development planning model for Jamaica and build capacity within the PIOJ and other key agencies to use the model to guide the preparation of Vision 2030 Jamaica, a 25-year national development plan expected to put Jamaica on a path to achieve developed country status by 2030.


"The T21 Model, which is a comprehensive, integrated, long-term development planning model, has assisted the PIOJ in understanding and communicating the trade-offs and impacts associated with different government policies and shocks. The long-term feature of the model allows us to evaluate the impact of a policy decision over decades (e.g. the government budget allocation), as the positive impact of some decisions won’t necessarily materialize in the short-run, for example, increased spending on early childhood education. However, the trade-offs associated with the decision may materialize in the short run. The policy impact will be felt when these children become adults and are more productive than the previous generation, which leads to higher growth and additional government revenues to address more socioeconomic and environmental issues. The T21 model is used to assess the long-term implication of government expenditure on the socioeconomic development of the economy and assist in guiding recommendations to achieve our developmental goals. The model is also used to assess the potential impact of natural disasters (especially hurricanes) on the economy, which is used to inform debt management risk scenarios, among other things."

Hugh Morris, Modeling & Research Director - Planning Institute of Jamaica

Key Policies and Reccomendations

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