Belgium
An Integrated Systems Analysis of Belgium's Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals
In 2015, Belgium committed to the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals. With the 2030 deadline approaching, studies suggest the country is not on track to meet the goals, and integrated tools to plan across them are still lacking in national institutions.
Intervention
In collaboration with the University of Bergen, and with data support from Belgium's Federal Planning Bureau, the Millennium Institute adapted and calibrated its iSD model to the Belgian context, adding new structures for material flows, emissions and waste. The analysis explored a business-as-usual scenario to 2050 to show the trajectory Belgium is on and how progress on one goal affects the others, as a first step toward integrated sustainable development planning in the country.
Key Policies and Reccomendations
Continued growth, rising public debt. Under business as usual, the model shows all economic sectors recovering from COVID-19 and growing to 2050, with industry rising from 19% to 25% of total production. Government expenditure persistently exceeds revenue, leading to unsustainable levels of debt.
An aging population and widening inequality. A higher share of the working-age population enters the workforce to offset retirements, while total employment stagnates. Income inequality widens despite gains in schooling, with the two highest income groups capturing 55% of total wealth by 2050.
Growing environmental pressure. Fossil fuels remain more than 80% of energy consumption, natural gas imports exceed 5% of GDP by 2050, domestic material consumption grows from 160 to 260 million tonnes, and waste approaches one tonne per person per year.
Efficiency alone is not enough. The efficiency gains needed to reach climate goals on their own would be beyond what is realistic, so efficiency improvements must be combined with other policies across energy, industry and consumption.