RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH & PROJECT REPORTS
A HOLISTIC LENS ON RICE VALUE CHAIN PATHWAYS IN SENEGAL: APPLICATION OF THE TEEB FRAMEWORK
This study contributes to further development and refinement of the TEEB Framework, through the lens of farming approaches to rice in Senegal. It explores the agricultural policy landscape in the region, and in particular the extent to which these policies influence the way in which ecosystems and biodiversity, livelihoods and equity, and nutrition and health are captured. The study sets out an approach for assessing various types of interventions in the agriculture and food sector of rice production in Senegal that might be used to capture these values so that hitherto invisible value-additions are recognized and accounted for in decision-making.
INVESTING IN EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT AND EDUCATION FOR SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE
This report is an analysis of the importance of investments in early childhood development and education on Sustainable Development Goals attainment and on key health, education and economic indicators described in l’Étude Nationale Prospective “Côte d’Ivoire 2040” (National Prospective Study). This analysis is an important evidence base for promoting and adopting such policies in Côte d’Ivoire and beyond.
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE SDGS: ACHIEVING THE SDGS WITH UGANDA’S THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
This report examines the potential medium- to longer-term impact of Uganda’s Third National Development Plan (NDP III) on sustainable development in Uganda. The impact is measured using targets set both within the international framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and NDP III for Uganda. The report identifies accelerators in the NDP III that catalyze SDG attainment and enable progress towards the achievement of NDP III and ultimately Uganda’s Vision 2040 goals.
Integrated Simulation for The 2030 Agenda
Syst. Dyn. Rev. 36, 333–357 (2020)
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN 2030 Agenda are today’s global roadmap to sustainable development. Adopted in 2015, the SDGs are the culmination of 50 years of debate and consensus building on the imperatives of sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda explicitly calls for integrated methods for SDG achievement. Two multisector modeling frameworks have emerged to address integration in SDG policy: the system dynamics based Integrated Sustainable Development Goal (iSDG) model and the multimethod International Futures (IFs) model. Both are feedback rich and thoroughly integrated, and we term them as Integrated Systems Models (ISMs). ISMs enable quantification of policy impacts across SDG sectors, helping identify policies that benefit numerous SDGs as well as potential trade-offs. These benefits have been witnessed in countries where these ISMs have been put to task on SDG policy. As the sustainable development paradigm becomes increasingly integrated, a central role is being created for further development of ISMs.
T21 China 2050: A Tool for National Sustainable Development Planning
Geography and Sustainability, 2020. ISSN 2666-6839.
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda are a key focus for implementing the Sustainable Development (SD) concept. But generally speaking, SD goals and targets are continuously evolving, country specific, complex to implement, and are often given relatively short time horizons, such as the 15-year horizon for the SDGs. Many SD issues need a much longer time horizon as the policy interventions to deal with these issues can take decades before their effects become apparent, which is especially true for China. The T21 China 2050 is developed to study the long-term SD challenges and opportunities of the country. In its business-as-usual simulation to 2050, T21 China 2050 reveals some of the sustainability challenges facing China, including 1) aging population and labor force decline, 2) huge food imports, 3) land degradation and loss of arable land, 4) water shortages, 5) huge fossil fuel imports, and 6) carbon dioxide emissions. These SD issues are a subset of the SDGs specifically relevant to China over a time horizon well beyond 2030.
Harvesting Synergy from Sustainable Development Goal Interactions
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2019, 201817276
As countries pursue sustainable development across sectors as diverse as health, agriculture, and infrastructure, sectoral policies interact, generating synergies that alter their effectiveness. Identifying those synergies ex ante facilitates the harmonization of policies and provides an important lever to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. However, identifying and quantifying these synergetic interactions are infeasible with traditional approaches to policy analysis. In this paper, we present a method for identifying synergies and assessing them quantitatively. We also introduce a typology of 5 classes of synergies that enables an understanding of their causal structures. We operationalize the typology in pilot studies of SDG strategies undertaken in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Malawi. In the pilots, the integrated SDG (iSDG) model was used to simulate the effects of policies over the SDG time horizon and to assess the contributions of synergies. Synergy contributions to overall SDG performance were 7% for Côte d’Ivoire, 0.7% for Malawi, and 2% for Senegal. We estimate the value of these contributions to be 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for Côte d’Ivoire, 0.4% for Malawi, and 0.7% for Senegal. We conclude that enhanced understanding of synergies in sustainable development planning can contribute to progress on the SDGs—and free substantial amounts of resources.
Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging
Nat Sustain 2, 1041–1050 (2019)
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combine complex interlinkages, future uncertainty and transformational change. Recent studies highlight that trade-offs between SDG targets may undermine achievement of the goals. Significant gaps remain in scenario frameworks and modelling capabilities. We develop a novel approach nesting national SDG scenario modelling within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, selecting Australia as a use case. The integrated SDG–Australia model is used to project four alternative scenarios that adopt different development approaches. Although we find that Australia is off-track to achieve the SDGs by 2030, considerable progress is possible by altering Australia’s development trajectory. A ‘Sustainability Transition’ scenario comprising a coherent set of policies and investments delivers rapid and balanced progress of 70% towards SDG targets by 2030, well ahead of the business-as-usual scenario (40%). A focus on economic growth, social inclusion or green economy in isolation foregoes opportunities for greater gains. However, future uncertainty and cascading risks could undermine progress, and closing the gap to 100% SDG achievement will be very challenging. This will require a shift from ‘transition’ to ‘transformation’.