RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

RESEARCH & PROJECT REPORTS

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE SDGS: ACHIEVING THE SDGS WITH UGANDA’S THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE SDGS: ACHIEVING THE SDGS WITH UGANDA’S THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

This report examines the potential medium- to longer-term impact of Uganda’s Third National Development Plan (NDP III) on sustainable development in Uganda. The impact is measured using targets set both within the international framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and NDP III for Uganda. The report identifies accelerators in the NDP III that catalyze SDG attainment and enable progress towards the achievement of NDP III and ultimately Uganda’s Vision 2040 goals.

ACHIEVING THE SDGs IN NIGERIA: PATHWAYS AND POLICY OPTIONS

ACHIEVING THE SDGs IN NIGERIA: PATHWAYS AND POLICY OPTIONS

This report presents the results of the application of the iSDG model in analyzing the prospects of Nigeria achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 under different policy scenarios. The report highlights the context, objectives, and analytical framework of the study; the SDG targets and policy intervention areas; and analyses of the simulation results. Synergies and coherence among the policy interventions are also discussed, including the estimates of annual and aggregate costs of the scenarios, and their implications for the government’s fiscal balance. The report concludes with the key findings and recommendations.

REVUE STRATÉGIQUE NATIONALE POUR L’ERADICATION TOTALE DE LA FAIM (ODD 2) AU SÉNÉGAL

REVUE STRATÉGIQUE NATIONALE POUR L’ERADICATION TOTALE DE LA FAIM (ODD 2) AU SÉNÉGAL

This review shows the full extent of hunger in Senegal. It presents a situation, which far from being catastrophic, however requires implementation of policy reforms. The review analyzes specific projects and programs aimed at combating food insecurity and malnutrition, and identifies their limitations and inconsistencies. It also proposes strategic policy shifts for efficient implementation of the Plan Émergent Sénégal as a vehicle to eliminate hunger, ensure food security, improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.

JOURNAL PAPERS

T21 China 2050: A Tool for National Sustainable Development Planning

Geography and Sustainability, 2020. ISSN 2666-6839.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda are a key focus for implementing the Sustainable Development (SD) concept. But generally speaking, SD goals and targets are continuously evolving, country specific, complex to implement, and are often given relatively short time horizons, such as the 15-year horizon for the SDGs. Many SD issues need a much longer time horizon as the policy interventions to deal with these issues can take decades before their effects become apparent, which is especially true for China. The T21 China 2050 is developed to study the long-term SD challenges and opportunities of the country. In its business-as-usual simulation to 2050, T21 China 2050 reveals some of the sustainability challenges facing China, including 1) aging population and labor force decline, 2) huge food imports, 3) land degradation and loss of arable land, 4) water shortages, 5) huge fossil fuel imports, and 6) carbon dioxide emissions. These SD issues are a subset of the SDGs specifically relevant to China over a time horizon well beyond 2030.

Harvesting Synergy from Sustainable Development Goal Interactions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2019, 201817276

As countries pursue sustainable development across sectors as diverse as health, agriculture, and infrastructure, sectoral policies interact, generating synergies that alter their effectiveness. Identifying those synergies ex ante facilitates the harmonization of policies and provides an important lever to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. However, identifying and quantifying these synergetic interactions are infeasible with traditional approaches to policy analysis. In this paper, we present a method for identifying synergies and assessing them quantitatively. We also introduce a typology of 5 classes of synergies that enables an understanding of their causal structures. We operationalize the typology in pilot studies of SDG strategies undertaken in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Malawi. In the pilots, the integrated SDG (iSDG) model was used to simulate the effects of policies over the SDG time horizon and to assess the contributions of synergies. Synergy contributions to overall SDG performance were 7% for Côte d’Ivoire, 0.7% for Malawi, and 2% for Senegal. We estimate the value of these contributions to be 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for Côte d’Ivoire, 0.4% for Malawi, and 0.7% for Senegal. We conclude that enhanced understanding of synergies in sustainable development planning can contribute to progress on the SDGs—and free substantial amounts of resources.

Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging

Nat Sustain 2, 1041–1050 (2019)

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combine complex interlinkages, future uncertainty and transformational change. Recent studies highlight that trade-offs between SDG targets may undermine achievement of the goals. Significant gaps remain in scenario frameworks and modelling capabilities. We develop a novel approach nesting national SDG scenario modelling within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, selecting Australia as a use case. The integrated SDG–Australia model is used to project four alternative scenarios that adopt different development approaches. Although we find that Australia is off-track to achieve the SDGs by 2030, considerable progress is possible by altering Australia’s development trajectory. A ‘Sustainability Transition’ scenario comprising a coherent set of policies and investments delivers rapid and balanced progress of 70% towards SDG targets by 2030, well ahead of the business-as-usual scenario (40%). A focus on economic growth, social inclusion or green economy in isolation foregoes opportunities for greater gains. However, future uncertainty and cascading risks could undermine progress, and closing the gap to 100% SDG achievement will be very challenging. This will require a shift from ‘transition’ to ‘transformation’.

Sustainability in global agriculture driven by organic farming

Nat Sustain 2, 253–255 (2019)

Agricultural practices need to change to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. How to achieve the SDGs is heavily contested. Here we propose a policy framework that triggers the required transition. Organic agriculture, although not a silver bullet, is a useful component in such strategy.

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