RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

RESEARCH & PROJECT REPORTS

A HOLISTIC LENS ON RICE VALUE CHAIN PATHWAYS IN SENEGAL: APPLICATION OF THE TEEB FRAMEWORK

A HOLISTIC LENS ON RICE VALUE CHAIN PATHWAYS IN SENEGAL: APPLICATION OF THE TEEB FRAMEWORK

This study contributes to further development and refinement of the TEEB Framework, through the lens of farming approaches to rice in Senegal. It explores the agricultural policy landscape in the region, and in particular the extent to which these policies influence the way in which ecosystems and biodiversity, livelihoods and equity, and nutrition and health are captured. The study sets out an approach for assessing various types of interventions in the agriculture and food sector of rice production in Senegal that might be used to capture these values so that hitherto invisible value-additions are recognized and accounted for in decision-making.

INVESTING IN EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT AND EDUCATION FOR SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

INVESTING IN EARLY CHILDHOOD DEVELOPMENT AND EDUCATION FOR SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

This report is an analysis of the importance of investments in early childhood development and education on Sustainable Development Goals attainment and on key health, education and economic indicators described in l’Étude Nationale Prospective “Côte d’Ivoire 2040” (National Prospective Study). This analysis is an important evidence base for promoting and adopting such policies in Côte d’Ivoire and beyond.

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE SDGS: ACHIEVING THE SDGS WITH UGANDA’S THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE SDGS: ACHIEVING THE SDGS WITH UGANDA’S THIRD NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

This report examines the potential medium- to longer-term impact of Uganda’s Third National Development Plan (NDP III) on sustainable development in Uganda. The impact is measured using targets set both within the international framework of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and NDP III for Uganda. The report identifies accelerators in the NDP III that catalyze SDG attainment and enable progress towards the achievement of NDP III and ultimately Uganda’s Vision 2040 goals.

JOURNAL PAPERS

COVID-19 Case Rates in the UK: Modelling Uncertainties as Lockdown Lifts

Systems 2021, 9(3), 60

The UK was one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. A strict lockdown from early 2021 combined with an aggressive vaccination programme enabled a gradual easing of lockdown measures to be introduced whilst both deaths and reported case numbers reduced to less than 3% of their peak. The emergence of the Delta variant in April 2021 has reversed this trend, and the UK is once again experiencing surging cases, albeit with reduced average severity due to the success of the vaccination rollout. This study presents the results of a modelling exercise which simulates the progression of the pandemic in the UK through projection of daily case numbers as lockdown lifts. The model projects that if lockdown restrictions are lifted in July 2021, UK COVID-19 cases will peak at hundreds of thousands daily in most viable scenarios, reducing in late 2021 as immunity acquired through both vaccination and infection reduces the susceptible population percentage. Further lockdown measures can be used to reduce daily cases.

Modelling National Transformations to Achieve the SDGs Within Planetary Boundaries in Small Island Developing States

Global Sustainability, 4, E15.

This paper presents the results from a national scenario modelling study for Fiji with broader relevance for other countries seeking to achieve the SDGs. We develop and simulate a business-as-usual and six alternative future scenarios using the iSDG-Fiji system dynamics model and evaluate their performance on the SDGs in 2030 and global planetary boundaries (PBs) and the ‘safe and just space’ (SJS) framework in 2050.

Integrated Simulation for The 2030 Agenda

Syst. Dyn. Rev. 36, 333–357 (2020)

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN 2030 Agenda are today’s global roadmap to sustainable development. Adopted in 2015, the SDGs are the culmination of 50 years of debate and consensus building on the imperatives of sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda explicitly calls for integrated methods for SDG achievement. Two multisector modeling frameworks have emerged to address integration in SDG policy: the system dynamics based Integrated Sustainable Development Goal (iSDG) model and the multimethod International Futures (IFs) model. Both are feedback rich and thoroughly integrated, and we term them as Integrated Systems Models (ISMs). ISMs enable quantification of policy impacts across SDG sectors, helping identify policies that benefit numerous SDGs as well as potential trade-offs. These benefits have been witnessed in countries where these ISMs have been put to task on SDG policy. As the sustainable development paradigm becomes increasingly integrated, a central role is being created for further development of ISMs.

T21 China 2050: A Tool for National Sustainable Development Planning

Geography and Sustainability, 2020. ISSN 2666-6839.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations 2030 Agenda are a key focus for implementing the Sustainable Development (SD) concept. But generally speaking, SD goals and targets are continuously evolving, country specific, complex to implement, and are often given relatively short time horizons, such as the 15-year horizon for the SDGs. Many SD issues need a much longer time horizon as the policy interventions to deal with these issues can take decades before their effects become apparent, which is especially true for China. The T21 China 2050 is developed to study the long-term SD challenges and opportunities of the country. In its business-as-usual simulation to 2050, T21 China 2050 reveals some of the sustainability challenges facing China, including 1) aging population and labor force decline, 2) huge food imports, 3) land degradation and loss of arable land, 4) water shortages, 5) huge fossil fuel imports, and 6) carbon dioxide emissions. These SD issues are a subset of the SDGs specifically relevant to China over a time horizon well beyond 2030.